Premier League: Elite Betting Advice 16/05

Premier League advisor David Huntingford (@EuroElitePL) enters the fray to provide his reckoning on the penultimate round of fixtures this season. A tense relegation battle continues to ensue, 18^th spot is yet to be decided as Newcastle have been dragged right into the thick of it. While Europa League places are still very much up for grabs.

QPR v Newcastle @ Loftus Road (3PM KO Sat):

The magnitude of this encounter can’t be understated, relegation for Newcastle would spell absolute disaster considering their league position a couple of months ago.

A run of 9 points from their last 16 matches marks an atrocious spell of form that threatens their very existence in the top flight. Surely that big club from up the road aren’t about to be relegated again?

John Carver has been quoted as saying he’s the best coach in the Premier League, a slightly perplexing statement considering Newcastle’s form under his stewardship.

I’m backing Newcastle DNB this Saturday, and I approach it with some level of apprehension. Logic would seem fit in suggesting that this is a dangerous bet given Newcastle’s lack of confidence, but I like the value on offer. Already relegated QPR rolled over all too easily against Man City, I didn’t see the level of fight I was expecting. There is the distinct possibility Chris Ramsey will throw a couple of youngsters into the mix this Saturday, he’s spent a large majority of his career within the Spurs youth set-up and therefore holds favourable views towards the implementation of youth in the first team.

QPR away is a difficult proposition, it will be physically demanding and congested in the centre of the pitch. But whether Newcastle like it or not, this is a cup final for them and I expect motivation levels and desire to match that fact accordingly. With the given circumstances and what’s at stake I believe 7/5 is generous value on the Newcastle win, however I’m taking the safer option and opting for Newcastle DNB @ 8/11 as I believe the draw is a realistic eventuality.

Advised Bet: Newcastle DNB @ 8/11

Southampton v Aston Villa @ St Mary’s (12:45 KO Sat):

While Aston Villa’s safety is not yet 100% assured, the odds are stacked in their favour which is testament to Sherwood’s management of the side. Tomorrow they face an out of sorts Southampton side who’ve struggled in recent times. The BTTS market has really jumped out at me in the sense of providing value.

Southampton need to pick up some good results if they’re to have a chance of cementing a Europa League spot. Missing out would mark a disappointing return considering their outstanding start to the season.

Villa are in sparkling form and have managed to score in 7 consecutive games. Southampton’s defensive record at home is undoubtedly good but they’ve now shipped in 8 goals in their last 4 matches (2 in each game, home and away).

Southampton have equally scored in each of their last 4 home games. For the sake of short term scoring tendencies in recent games, I’m inclined to back BTTS and think 37/40 presents excellent value. With the season nearing its conclusion I expect both sides to play a vibrant brand of attacking football that exudes fearlessness. I will be surprised if there is caution either way.

Advised Bet: BTTS

•  Newcastle DNB
• Southampton v Aston Villa BTTS

DOUBLE @ 3.32 – (BetVictor) 2.75 PT STAKE

 

2^nd Bet – Longshot DOUBLE @ 25.00 (Bet365) 0.75 PT STAKE

•  Aston Villa WIN
•  Hull WIN

At 25.00 I really can’t knock this longshot. There is the possibility Villa’s motivation levels will have dwindled with their fate almost sealed, but there is no substitute for confidence, and confidence is exactly what Villa possess at the moment. 17/4 is a massive price considering both teams relative form. Hull are in a massive need of 3 points to overturn the 2 point deficit that separates them and Newcastle. Time and time again we see the relegation strugglers overcome decent sides at this stage of the season when it matters most. A trip to White Lane is by no means ideal, but I think Steve Bruce has the nous to get a positive result this Saturday. Spurs are in poor form and I can see this continuing. 15/4 in my opinion presents a big price that can’t be ignored.

Premier League: Elite Betting Advice 09/05

Last week saw David Huntingford (@EuroElitePL) get back to winning ways with a tidy EVENS selection to secure +4 pts profit and bolster a consistent tally of profitable selections. Mr Huntingford has now successfully advised 5/6 weeks profit & this week is keen to make it 6/7 as the Premier League season ushers into its concluding stretch.

The relegation dogfight continues to please yet again, neutral observers are witnessing terrific fighting spirit from the sides looking to steer clear of relegation. No team play the advocate for this more than Leicester City, a whopping 5 wins in 6 Premier League games marks an outstanding achievement for a side who’d only managed 4 wins prior to this good run. The Premier League is the holy grail and numerous sides are able to raise their game when the stakes are highest.

Hull v Burnley @ The KC Stadium (3PM KO Sat):

While there is a slender mathematical opportunity that Burney could yet stay up, the odds are completely and utterly stacked against them. On the other hand, Hull are right in the heart of the dogfight and were afforded no favours after Arsenal’s fortuitous goals on Monday night. After this fixture against Burnley, Hull still have a tough looking away game at White Hart Lane, in addition to the small matter of Man Utd at home on the final day.On the evidence of this you’ve got the feel this fixture could be make or break for Hull, 3 points is essential and might be enough to retain Premier League status come May 24^th.

Burnley have now failed to score in 6 successive games, much to the frustration of Sean Dyche

While Hull always seem to lack a creative spark and penetration, I’m backing them to win this week. Hull never seem to be in good form, but Steve Bruce has an uncanny knack of producing a win every now and then to keep them ticking over.

At this stage of a season motivation plays a huge role in determining the outcome of matches, Burnley are all but down and won’t be stretching every sinew to get a result, whereas Hull can’t afford to drop any points.

Hull are best priced at EVENS to win the game, however I’m going to back Hull to Win and under 3.5 goals at 29/20. This difference in price marks an improvement in value, and I’m happy to take the higher price based on goal scoring tendencies.

7/8 of Hull’s Premier League wins this season have featured under 3.5 goals, whereas Burnley are now 6 games without a goal.

Everything about this game points towards a narrow Hull victory.

Advised Bet: Single @ 29/20 – Hull WIN & UNDER 3.5 GOALS – (BoyleSports) 4 PT STAKE

Aston Villa v West Ham @ Villa Park (3PM KO Sat):

Aston Villa are a rejuvenated side under Tim Sherwood’s stewardship, he’s galvanised the team and got them playing exciting attacking football again (something they severely lacked under Lambert). Having scoured through Aston Villa forums, the fans point towards their side exhibiting more freedom in the attacking third. Previously their attacking game was characterised by an unwillingness for players to make creative runs, Lambert was too cautious in his approach.

Benteke is a new player under the management of Tim Sherwood, 5 goals in his last 6 outings exemplifies this.

Sherwood has enabled the shackles to come off and encouraged his side to play their strengths, this is why their goal scoring record has now vastly improved.

West Ham have undoubtedly had a terrific season, but Big Sam will be hoping to negotiate the remaining fixtures as quickly as possible. Villa again need 3 points to solidify their assault on a Premier League spot next year, while West Ham have nothing to play for apart from a top half finish. Sherwood’s side are full of confidence and I expect them to take one step closer to surviving relegation.

Advised Bet: Aston Villa WIN @ EVENS

Stoke v Tottenham @ The Brittania (3PM KO Sat):

Spurs are being priced as 6/4 favourites in this game and I’m struggling to see why? Spurs certainly need the 3 points for European claims but they aren’t playing too well at the moment.

Anyone who backs a side against Stoke away from home is playing with fire.

Stoke have been strong at home for the duration of their Premier League tenure and don’t lose many games. In all fairness to Spurs they have a solid away record against the teams below them, they’ve also drawn 6 away from home. Intuition is telling me this will be a draw, I just think both sides will match each other equally in every department of the pitch.

Advised Bet: Stoke v Tottenham DRAW @ 23/10

• Aston Villa WIN
• Stoke v Tottenham DRAW

DOUBLE @ 6.60 – (Coral) 1 PT STAKE

Premier League: Elite Betting Advice 02/05-03/05

After a lacklustre Man Utd display last Sunday, Premier League advisor David Huntingford (@EuroElitePL) was hunting a fifth successive week of profit, only to be denied by Man Utd’s inability to score a goal in a BTTS tip. This week he returns with a tasty double to whet the appetite, hoping to build on a very solid profit haul over the last month.

Aston Villa v Everton @ Goodison Park (3PM KO SAT):

This game constitutes a huge stepping stone in Aston Villa’s journey to avoiding relegation, a win would take them one step closer to retaining Premier League status. However, they face an Everton side in sparkling form who put 3 past a toothless Man Utd side last week. The scoring and conceding tendencies of these sides has pulled me in the direction of this bet,

Everton have now scored in 8 consecutive games, while Villa have conceded 10 in their last 5 games.

The ever passionate Tim Sherwood will be hoping for 3 points this Saturday, a 3 points which could be vital come the end of the season

Aston Villa are less defensive under Tim Sherwood and are therefore prone to conceding a goal or two. The Toffees, on the other hand, are full of confidence after a long overdue superb sequence of form and I therefore expect them to score this Saturday. Aston Villa have kept just 3 clean sheets at home all season (Premier League).

In the last 15 meetings between the two sides, Everton have only failed to score on one occasion.

Advised Bet: Aston Villa NO CLEAN SHEET @ 1/3

Spurs v Man City @ White Hart Lane (SkySports 16:00 SUN):

With Man City’s stuttering form of late, you wouldn’t be stupid for thinking they are a coupon buster. However, I’ve got a real inkling for City this weekend, while Spurs continue to pick up some decent results I believe their performance levels have definitely dropped over the last month. Danny Rose and Ben Davies are absent for Spurs, prompting the question of who will fill in at left-back? City will certainly be asking questions of their own, with a plethora of attacking options to capitalise on Spurs’ left-back troubles.

Spurs have really struggled against City in recent times, conceding 15 goals over their last 3 encounters!

Sergio Aguero is back in the goals and he’ll be sensing blood against a leaky defence. While Silva’s intricacy in and around the box will ask constant questions of Spurs ability to be compact and disciplined.

There is a risk that Spurs could put on a terrific display and blow City away (as they did to Chelsea at WHL), but City need the points this Sunday and Manuel Pellegrini will be expecting maximum returns. Man City have blown Spurs away in their last 3 meetings, prevailing 4-1, 5-1 and 6-0.

Advised Bet: Man City DNB @ 4/7

• Aston Villa NO CLEAN SHEET
• Man City DNB 

Double @ 2.00 (Bet365) 4 PT STAKE

Premier League & FA Cup Betting Tips 07/03

After a profitable +4.625PTS Wednesday evening smash and grab on debut, David Huntingford (@EuroElitePL) assesses the limited top-flight action this weekend.

Bet 1: Aston Villa v West Brom UNDER 2.5 GOALS and QPR v Tottenham Hotspur BTTS

Double @ 2.79 (BetVictor) – 3 PT STAKE

Bet 2: Aston Villa v West Brom DRAW & UNDER 2.5 GOALS

Single @ 3.60 (Bet365) – 2 PT STAKE

Aston Villa and West Brom meet in the Quarter Final of the FA Cup. With a trip to Wembley at stake, this fierce rivalry will be intensified and I expect chances to be few and far between. While the game will probably be played at a frenetic pace for the first 20 minutes, I’m expecting a real midfield scrap to ensue for the majority of the game. These two sides ironically met each other on Tuesday at Villa Park, with a 94^th minute Christian Benteke penalty sealing a 2-1 victory. Villa certainly enjoyed the better of the game from a statistical angle, but chances were still at a premium. With bragging rights at stake again, both Tim Sherwood and Tony Pulis will be doing everything they can to ensure they don’t lose this one. I think there’s a good chance this game will finish a draw with both sides happy to replay it at the Hawthorns.

• Villa and the Baggies have featured in many low scoring draws this season.
• Villa have only been involved in 10 of 28 Premier League games over 2.5 goals, whereas West Brom have been involved in 12 out of their 28 over 2.5.
• Villa have the lowest goals to match ratio in the Premier League, with an average of just 1.9 goals being scored in their games.
• West Brom have scored just 9 goals from their 14 away Premier League games, conceding a respectable 17.
• Villa scored just 11 goals in 14 home games in the Premier League

• It is a derby + a Quarter Final, form and stats go out the window in many cases/scenarios. Remain cautious when betting on games like this, occasion and circumstances always a big influence on final outcome.

Tim Sherwood certainly brings a wealth of passion and commitment to the role, but does he possess the tactical knowhow to keep Villa up? Tweet us your opinion @EuroElitePL

The Fans Opinion on the Quarter Final:

Aston Villa Fans:

Many Villa fans are confident ahead of this one, with the majority predicting a win against their neighbours down the road.

“Tricky for Sherwood as Sunderland next week is a massive game! However we have to keep up the momentum and another win against the little club down the road should make us even better”

“I would play Given as he has been the cup keeper but other than that I would play the same team again, I could pick fault with certain individuals but as a team we battled, created chances and eventually got the win we deserved”

“Since it’s not a midweek cup match and the players will have a week until Sunderland, I think we can put out a strong 11. If they don’t start, I’d like Sinclair and Gil to get 25-30 min at least. I believe Westy was very good yesterday. One of his better performances. I think he’s a player that could really thrive under Sherwood. I’ve been very critical of Sherwood tactically, but I like what I saw yesterday. He’s really letting the players loose to move around more. Not restricting like Lambert. Hey may be 4-4-Tim but he’s doing it wisely. I think Sherwood eased a lot of anxieties from fans like myself who weren’t thrilled with his hire. A win Saturday would not only be massive for the club with a trip to Wembley, but I believe it would give us a massive momentum boost going to Sunderland”.

West Brom Fans:

There is far less confidence coming from the Baggies fans, with many of them happily taking the prospect of a replay at the Hawthorns. Quite surprising considering the excellent job Pulis has done.

“Honestly can’t see us getting the win we badly want at theirs. Limited attacking options, they are desperate for points. Draw for me.”

“Really looking forward to this. Things are running too smooth though for my liking. Winning games, keeping clean sheets and a good feel good factor about the club – it’s going to go tits up eventually isn’t it? That’s the Albion way. Please, please, please, not this week”.

“I for one will not complain no matter the result after the form we’ve been on recently (unless we get smashed 6-0). I do have a bad feeling Villa will click against us, they are that jammy. Hope I’m wrong though”.

Opinions taken from the club forums of http://www.avillafan.com/ and http://westbrom.com/forum/

Second half of Bet 1 DOUBLE: QPR v Spurs BTTS:

This is a big game for QPR and I think they desperately need something from this, a point at the least. QPR have generally been very strong at home this season, which has really spared their blushes away from Loftus Road, where they’ve been horrendous. QPR have scored in 4 of their last 5 matches despite some poor results. QPR have played 14 matches at home, scoring in 10 of them. Spurs are the BTTS specialists away from home this season, with 11 of their 15 away games in English league and cup competitions finishing BTTS. Spurs have a tendency to concede goals when you aren’t really expecting it, perhaps down to some defensive indiscipline and naivety on their part. Charlie Austin is a vital component of the QPR attacking threat, if he starts I’m confident QPR will score in this game. Whereas Spurs have the likes of Eriksen and Kane, both have been potent in front of goal this campaign. With Bet Victor offering odds of 8/11 BTTS, it was value which really stood out taking into account the goal patterns of both sides this season.

The question on many people’s lips is can QPR stay up, this is their home fixture list for the remainder of the season. Worrying when you consider their atrocious away form.

QPR v Spurs

QPR v Everton

QPR v Chelsea

QPR v West Ham

QPR v Newcastle

QPR will need their main talisman Charlie Austin firing on all cylinders if they’re to stay up

A Fans Opinion on Relegation (he makes some good points):

“It’s getting towards the time where it doesn’t matter who is playing who. Getting points is critical and it really doesn’t matter where they come from. It’s not about who has the hardest run-in as there are no gimme’s. Leicester have already beaten utd, burnley got a point away at the scum, results like these will continue over the next couple of months, and there’s no reason why we shouldn’t add to the so-called surprises tonight and again on Saturday. Actually I think we have too! We need to keep the pressure on those teams that are a couple of points above us. If a gap appears then the pressure reverts back to us”.

 http://www.fansnetwork.co.uk/football/queensparkrangers/forum/