After a profitable +4.625PTS Wednesday evening smash and grab on debut, David Huntingford (@EuroElitePL) assesses the limited top-flight action this weekend.
Bet 1: Aston Villa v West Brom UNDER 2.5 GOALS and QPR v Tottenham Hotspur BTTS
Double @ 2.79 (BetVictor) – 3 PT STAKE
Bet 2: Aston Villa v West Brom DRAW & UNDER 2.5 GOALS
Single @ 3.60 (Bet365) – 2 PT STAKE
Aston Villa and West Brom meet in the Quarter Final of the FA Cup. With a trip to Wembley at stake, this fierce rivalry will be intensified and I expect chances to be few and far between. While the game will probably be played at a frenetic pace for the first 20 minutes, I’m expecting a real midfield scrap to ensue for the majority of the game. These two sides ironically met each other on Tuesday at Villa Park, with a 94th minute Christian Benteke penalty sealing a 2-1 victory. Villa certainly enjoyed the better of the game from a statistical angle, but chances were still at a premium. With bragging rights at stake again, both Tim Sherwood and Tony Pulis will be doing everything they can to ensure they don’t lose this one. I think there’s a good chance this game will finish a draw with both sides happy to replay it at the Hawthorns.
- Villa and the Baggies have featured in many low scoring draws this season.
- Villa have only been involved in 10 of 28 Premier League games over 2.5 goals, whereas West Brom have been involved in 12 out of their 28 over 2.5.
- Villa have the lowest goals to match ratio in the Premier League, with an average of just 1.9 goals being scored in their games.
- West Brom have scored just 9 goals from their 14 away Premier League games, conceding a respectable 17.
- Villa scored just 11 goals in 14 home games in the Premier League
- It is a derby + a Quarter Final, form and stats go out the window in many cases/scenarios. Remain cautious when betting on games like this, occasion and circumstances always a big influence on final outcome.
The Fans Opinion on the Quarter Final:
Aston Villa Fans:
Many Villa fans are confident ahead of this one, with the majority predicting a win against their neighbours down the road.
“Tricky for Sherwood as Sunderland next week is a massive game! However we have to keep up the momentum and another win against the little club down the road should make us even better”
“I would play Given as he has been the cup keeper but other than that I would play the same team again, I could pick fault with certain individuals but as a team we battled, created chances and eventually got the win we deserved”
“Since it’s not a midweek cup match and the players will have a week until Sunderland, I think we can put out a strong 11. If they don’t start, I’d like Sinclair and Gil to get 25-30 min at least. I believe Westy was very good yesterday. One of his better performances. I think he’s a player that could really thrive under Sherwood. I’ve been very critical of Sherwood tactically, but I like what I saw yesterday. He’s really letting the players loose to move around more. Not restricting like Lambert. Hey may be 4-4-Tim but he’s doing it wisely. I think Sherwood eased a lot of anxieties from fans like myself who weren’t thrilled with his hire. A win Saturday would not only be massive for the club with a trip to Wembley, but I believe it would give us a massive momentum boost going to Sunderland”.
West Brom Fans:
There is far less confidence coming from the Baggies fans, with many of them happily taking the prospect of a replay at the Hawthorns. Quite surprising considering the excellent job Pulis has done.
“Honestly can’t see us getting the win we badly want at theirs. Limited attacking options, they are desperate for points. Draw for me.”
“Really looking forward to this. Things are running too smooth though for my liking. Winning games, keeping clean sheets and a good feel good factor about the club – it’s going to go tits up eventually isn’t it? That’s the Albion way. Please, please, please, not this week”.
“I for one will not complain no matter the result after the form we’ve been on recently (unless we get smashed 6-0). I do have a bad feeling Villa will click against us, they are that jammy. Hope I’m wrong though”.
Opinions taken from the club forums of http://www.avillafan.com/ and http://westbrom.com/forum/
Second half of Bet 1 DOUBLE: QPR v Spurs BTTS:
This is a big game for QPR and I think they desperately need something from this, a point at the least. QPR have generally been very strong at home this season, which has really spared their blushes away from Loftus Road, where they’ve been horrendous. QPR have scored in 4 of their last 5 matches despite some poor results. QPR have played 14 matches at home, scoring in 10 of them. Spurs are the BTTS specialists away from home this season, with 11 of their 15 away games in English league and cup competitions finishing BTTS. Spurs have a tendency to concede goals when you aren’t really expecting it, perhaps down to some defensive indiscipline and naivety on their part. Charlie Austin is a vital component of the QPR attacking threat, if he starts I’m confident QPR will score in this game. Whereas Spurs have the likes of Eriksen and Kane, both have been potent in front of goal this campaign. With Bet Victor offering odds of 8/11 BTTS, it was value which really stood out taking into account the goal patterns of both sides this season.
The question on many people’s lips is can QPR stay up, this is their home fixture list for the remainder of the season. Worrying when you consider their atrocious away form.
QPR v Spurs
QPR v Everton
QPR v Chelsea
QPR v West Ham
QPR v Newcastle
A Fans Opinion on Relegation (he makes some good points):
“It’s getting towards the time where it doesn’t matter who is playing who. Getting points is critical and it really doesn’t matter where they come from. It’s not about who has the hardest run-in as there are no gimme’s. Leicester have already beaten utd, burnley got a point away at the scum, results like these will continue over the next couple of months, and there’s no reason why we shouldn’t add to the so-called surprises tonight and again on Saturday. Actually I think we have too! We need to keep the pressure on those teams that are a couple of points above us. If a gap appears then the pressure reverts back to us”.
http://www.fansnetwork.co.uk/football/queensparkrangers/forum/
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