Premier League: Elite Betting Advice 16/05

Premier League advisor David Huntingford (@EuroElitePL) enters the fray to provide his reckoning on the penultimate round of fixtures this season. A tense relegation battle continues to ensue, 18^th spot is yet to be decided as Newcastle have been dragged right into the thick of it. While Europa League places are still very much up for grabs.

QPR v Newcastle @ Loftus Road (3PM KO Sat):

The magnitude of this encounter can’t be understated, relegation for Newcastle would spell absolute disaster considering their league position a couple of months ago.

A run of 9 points from their last 16 matches marks an atrocious spell of form that threatens their very existence in the top flight. Surely that big club from up the road aren’t about to be relegated again?

John Carver has been quoted as saying he’s the best coach in the Premier League, a slightly perplexing statement considering Newcastle’s form under his stewardship.

I’m backing Newcastle DNB this Saturday, and I approach it with some level of apprehension. Logic would seem fit in suggesting that this is a dangerous bet given Newcastle’s lack of confidence, but I like the value on offer. Already relegated QPR rolled over all too easily against Man City, I didn’t see the level of fight I was expecting. There is the distinct possibility Chris Ramsey will throw a couple of youngsters into the mix this Saturday, he’s spent a large majority of his career within the Spurs youth set-up and therefore holds favourable views towards the implementation of youth in the first team.

QPR away is a difficult proposition, it will be physically demanding and congested in the centre of the pitch. But whether Newcastle like it or not, this is a cup final for them and I expect motivation levels and desire to match that fact accordingly. With the given circumstances and what’s at stake I believe 7/5 is generous value on the Newcastle win, however I’m taking the safer option and opting for Newcastle DNB @ 8/11 as I believe the draw is a realistic eventuality.

Advised Bet: Newcastle DNB @ 8/11

Southampton v Aston Villa @ St Mary’s (12:45 KO Sat):

While Aston Villa’s safety is not yet 100% assured, the odds are stacked in their favour which is testament to Sherwood’s management of the side. Tomorrow they face an out of sorts Southampton side who’ve struggled in recent times. The BTTS market has really jumped out at me in the sense of providing value.

Southampton need to pick up some good results if they’re to have a chance of cementing a Europa League spot. Missing out would mark a disappointing return considering their outstanding start to the season.

Villa are in sparkling form and have managed to score in 7 consecutive games. Southampton’s defensive record at home is undoubtedly good but they’ve now shipped in 8 goals in their last 4 matches (2 in each game, home and away).

Southampton have equally scored in each of their last 4 home games. For the sake of short term scoring tendencies in recent games, I’m inclined to back BTTS and think 37/40 presents excellent value. With the season nearing its conclusion I expect both sides to play a vibrant brand of attacking football that exudes fearlessness. I will be surprised if there is caution either way.

Advised Bet: BTTS

•  Newcastle DNB
• Southampton v Aston Villa BTTS

DOUBLE @ 3.32 – (BetVictor) 2.75 PT STAKE

 

2^nd Bet – Longshot DOUBLE @ 25.00 (Bet365) 0.75 PT STAKE

•  Aston Villa WIN
•  Hull WIN

At 25.00 I really can’t knock this longshot. There is the possibility Villa’s motivation levels will have dwindled with their fate almost sealed, but there is no substitute for confidence, and confidence is exactly what Villa possess at the moment. 17/4 is a massive price considering both teams relative form. Hull are in a massive need of 3 points to overturn the 2 point deficit that separates them and Newcastle. Time and time again we see the relegation strugglers overcome decent sides at this stage of the season when it matters most. A trip to White Lane is by no means ideal, but I think Steve Bruce has the nous to get a positive result this Saturday. Spurs are in poor form and I can see this continuing. 15/4 in my opinion presents a big price that can’t be ignored.

Premier League: Elite Betting Advice 04/04

Premier League advisor David Huntingford (@EuroElitePL) returns to action after a shrewd week of tipping under his belt. Two correct score successes over the international period yielded him +8 pts Profit (here & here). Now attention turns back to the Premier League and hopefully a successful weekend for us. The Premier League has once again delivered; offering us some pulsating fixtures to get our teeth stuck into. With top 4 spots yet to be decided in addition to a relegation battle that promises to go down to the wire, an average fixture on paper becomes fascinating with what’s at stake.

Bet 1: Arsenal v Liverpool BTTS, Chelsea WIN

Double @ 2.27 (Betfair) – 4 PT STAKE

Arsenal v Liverpool BTTS (12.45 KO, BT SPORT):

In the context of the race for 4th spot, this is a huge game. Liverpool currently trail Arsenal by 6 points, that gap can be closed to a slender 3 points with a Liverpool win. I expect this game to be played at a frenetic intensity. When you look at the balance of both sides, they are stronger going forward than they are defensively.An inform Giroud continues to find the net on a regular basis, intertwine that with Alexis Sanchez who can weave in and out of defenders with relative ease, this will cause an immobile Liverpool defence problems.

Arsenal’s athleticism going forward will pose a real problem to a defence which lacks pace and conviction at times.

Both Sterling and Sanchez are key players for their sides and could play a pivotal part in a positive performance. Will the Sterling contract headlines negatively impact upon his performance?

On the other hand, Liverpool exhibit similar attacking qualities. If Liverpool can isolate Mertesacker on the counter attack then the pace of Sterling and Sturridge could be key. Mertesacker’s positioning will need to be spot on throughout the 90 minutes. Consider the qualities of Lallana and Coutinho, both equally capable of providing eye of the needle ammunition in behind. Arsenal’s midfield will be crucial in this game, if they can sit deep and deny Coutinho the space to sit in the hole and manoeuvre the ball, then they should be able to neutralise some of Liverpool’s attacking qualities effectively.

The majority will be sticking Arsenal in their accumulators this weekend, however for the sake of value this Saturday, a single on a Liverpool win at 7/2 (with most bookmakers- best price) is a price which can’t be sneezed at. 

Chelsea WIN (17:30 KO Sky Sports):

Many will question my logic in backing Chelsea this weekend, many will consider it a skinny price at 2/7. However, sometimes stats simply can’t be ignored. Chelsea have won every single meeting between the two sides at Stamford Bridge. Chelsea have performed poorly at home in recent times and for that reason I feel they are due a good performance and potentially a big win. There is no doubting the tremendous job Mark Hughes has done at Stoke, I think Stoke have improved under his stewardship despite the outstanding job Tony Pulis did over an extended tenure.

Chelsea should be fuelled with further motivation with the knowledge that City have a tough looking trip to Crystal Palace on Monday. Overall, Chelsea should have too much attacking fire-power on Saturday, despite the stern nature of the Stoke defence. The Stoke full-backs lack pace and mobility, the likes of Hazard, Willian or Cuadrado have the traits to take advantage of them weaknesses.

Chelsea have won every single meeting between the sides at Stamford Bridge

Bet 2: Everton v Southampton DRAW, Sunderland v Newcastle DRAW

Double @ 10.72 (BoyleSports) – 1 PT STAKE