@FitbaTips is the chief betting advisor for http://www.scottishfootballtips.com and is already showing a positive return in his short time with us at Europe’s Elite.
It’s crunch time in the Scottish Championship today and you can forget about the battle for second place. It’s all about the bottom two positions with three teams battling it out to avoid automatic relegation. Only the team that finishes bottom goes down with the team that comes second bottom facing a play-off.
Alloa hold the bottom place at the moment but they host Cowdenbeath who are just one point above them. Sandwiched between the two are Livingston on the same points as Alloa but with a better goal difference. Livingston just need to better either Alloa or Cowdenbeath’s result to not finish bottom. Cowdenbeath just need to avoid defeat. Alloa MUST WIN.
Phew. Clear? Great. So the gist lies in Alloa’s must win status. Basically this game looks a stick on for goals whatever end they go in. Either Alloa take the lead meaning Cowdenbeath have to become more adventurous or Cowdenbeath take the lead meaning Alloa have to become more gung-ho. Wither way someone has to throw caution to the wind at some point. Things could change so rapidly that the gung-ho team could change over multiple times during the game.
It will be exciting, that’s for sure, and although the price for +2.5 Match goals is a little short at 1.6(3/5) with Ladbrokes I am happy to back it for a little more than my standard bet size.
Recommended bet:
Alloa v Cowdenbeath + 2.5 Match Goals @ 1.6 (1.33 pt stake).
Bundesliga expert Tom Sandford (@EuroEliteGER) isn’t one to pull punches and once again he’s taken a slightly different route than the usual punter would in search of value.
Bayer Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich @ BayArena (5.30PM KO SAT):
Last week I put my efforts into predicting the outcomes of games affecting the intense Bundesliga relegation battle. The 85th minute equaliser following Stuttgart’s red card was hard to take and so this week I am switching focus to the Champions League battle at the opposite end of the table.
Although the race for the 3rd Bundesliga Champions League automatic qualification spot doesn’t as appear to be as enthralling as other such battles across Europe’s Elite footballing divisions, this weekend is sure to provide some answers as Leverkusen prepare themselves to host Bundesliga holders Bayern Munich.
Last week Leverkusen squandered the chance to take all 3 points away at relegation threatened Cologne due to conceding in the 84th minute in a gritty match ending 1-1. They would later go on to rue these errors when Champions League qualification rivals Monchengladbach won against Wolfsburg the next day, putting Leverkusen into 4th, 2 points behind their counterparts.
Whilst Bundesliga champions Bayern have been a beauty to behold at times this season with their intrinsically linked wide play through Robben and Ribery that has inevitably lead to a free-scoring side that have run riot against many of their lesser qualified opponents. Leverkusen, however, will be up for this and have a good history against the Bundesliga champions. Looking back just under a month ago we saw a 0-0 draw between the two sides, with Leverkusen actually registering over double the amount of shots as Bayern, in a game that they certainly should have won.
I am tipping Leverkusen to win this game for a number of reasons. Firstly, after winning the Bundesliga title last year we saw Guardiola’s men slump to 2 losses and a draw in their following 3 matches. History could easily repeat itself when you consider the fact that Leverkusen are on an awesome run of results, having romped to victory by a 4-0 scoreline in their last 3 home games. Motivation levels will be high and you get the feeling that Pep Guardiola’s men will be somewhat tentatively involved in this game, hoping to save as much energy for Wednesday night’s monumental Champions League semi-final tie against Barcelona.
Betting advisor George Sandford (@EuroEliteFL) has delivered +28.33pts PROFIT across his Football League selections this season and looks to end the season in style by focussing his efforts on League Two tomorrow.
Okay, granted you may be thinking: “George, it’s the finale of the Championship season tomorrow, surely you’ve plucked out a bet from all of those games!”.At Europe’s Elite we look to make the most profitable decision available, and by doing so that will often mean the popular fixtures are overlooked in favour of those that will give us the most bang for our buck in the long haul.
Cambridge United v Burton Albion @ Abbey Stadium (3PM KO SAT):
Due to second placed Shrewsbury’s far superior goal difference this is a game that Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink’s Burton side know they have to win in order to clinch the League Two title.
When looking for sides to win as a betting opportunity it’s important that the team in question is one that is prolific in front of goal, else going a goal behind early would really dent our chances. For this reason I’m backing Burton to finish off their season with a win, as they’ve managed a monumental 15 goals from their last 8 fixtures on the road culminating in an impressive 6 victories.
Interestingly if we look at another similarly priced favourite in Southend (best priced 1.8 to defeat Morecambe) you will see that, although they’ve won their last 8, these have all been by narrow margins. I feel as though we’re getting better value (best priced at 1.85) with a side like Burton that have more firepower going forward and less margin for error.
Newport County v Oxford United @ Rodney Parade (3PM KO SAT):
Despite the fact that neither of these sides have anything to play for (Newport need to overturn an 18 goal disadvantage to current playoff place holders Plymouth), I’ve been an avid admirer of the way in which Oxford have ended the season, especially in the performances of 16 goal dynamo Danny Hylton, who is highly likely to spark up some interest from other Football League clubs when the transfer window gets up and running again.
Having beaten Wycombe at Adams Park 3-2 as well as away triumphs at Bury and Tranmere in recent times you would think that they could grab a result against a Newport outfit that really took their foot off of the gas at a costly time. With a meagre 2 wins from their last 10 games in front of their Welsh faithful it’s all pointing towards another couple of points being dropped and I’m more than happy to point you in the direction of a 4/7 selection on the Oxford double chance (any result except the Newport win).
We’re fast approaching the end of the season now, and Spanish football bettor Alex Luke, our most consistent betting advisor, is on hand to point us in the direction of where the money is this weekend in La Liga. As the pressure bestowed upon the players increases, Alex is at hand to capitalise on what is at stake by dissecting the markets for profitable bets!
Cordoba v Barcelona @ Nuevo Arcángel (3PM KO SAT):
On Saturday Catalan giants Barcelona look to bolster their chances of yet another La Liga title as they travel to rock bottom Córdoba, who are all but down after a woeful season.
The hosts have lost 11 games this season by two goals or more – a shocking record – and against a Barcelona attacking trio that have now scored 100 goals in the league between them I don’t rate their chances of preventing a slaughtering. Barcelona know that a win is a must, as Real Madrid face a tough trip to Sevilla. Should Madrid fail to win then a Barcelona Victory will almost certainly guarantee them the title – so they’ll be right up for this one. They’ve also won 22 games by a margin of two goals or greater and against the worst teams in the league a heavy away victory is almost always a given. Therefore the -1 handicap is a very secure pick at attractive odds – I anticipated the odds to be in the 1/5 region so to find them a fair amount higher is very enticing.
Valencia v Eibar @ Estadio Mestalla (6PM KO SUN):
In the second leg of the double I’m looking towards 5th placed Valencia, who are desperately chasing 4th place and a Champions League spot next season.
They welcome Eibar to the Mestalla safe in the knowledge that they’re facing a side with the worst run of form in the league – winning just once in 15 games and losing 13 of those. Valencia haven’t conceded a goal in their last 5 home games and have won by a comfortable margin against just about every team in the bottom half. Their home record is just superb with only one loss all season and will see a win as absolutely essential considering the high chance of Sevilla dropping points to Real Madrid. Had it not been for a whole host of missed chances and a red card Valencia would have won away at Vallecano in midweek. I have no doubt that they’ll rectify their mistakes for this game and should come out comfortable winners.
Sevilla v Real Madrid @ Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán (7PM KO SAT):
All eyes on Sevilla’s goal machine Carlos Bacca, who has bagged 4 in his last 5 outings and could be the linchpin in continuing their unbeaten home record.
In the big fixture of the weekend Sevilla entertain Real Madrid in a vital clash that could be pivotal in both the title race and the battle for 4th.
Madrid know anything other than a win will probably put the title out of reach, whilst Sevilla will be keen to ensure a positive result in order to hold off Valencia. The hosts have an excellent chance of doing that too – they are the only side still unbeaten at home in the league this season – a thoroughly impressive record which they deserve full credit for maintaining, especially against the likes of Barcelona, Atletico and Valencia.
Madrid have been superb away from home (as you’d expect from such an expensive team of talent), however their recent performances have been a little lacklustre – they were poor against Almeria in midweek despite winning 3-0, for example. Injuries to key players such as Bale and Benzema have stunted their title challenge somewhat and with both of them (plus Modric, Ramos etc) unlikely to be back for this weekends game their chances of a win look slim. Ronaldo has also failed to find the net in recent games – a scoreless run which has come at just the wrong time. Everything is in Sevilla’s favour here to give them the best chance of maintaining their unbeaten run – and I think they’ll do exactly that.
Malaga v Elche @ La Rosadela (9PM KO SUN):
For the second half of this double I’m looking towards Malaga – who have had a solid season and will be pleased with their top half position after their recent financial woes.
Stability is what the club needs and this season they’ve achieved precisely that – allowing them to build for next season. They could infact still qualify for Europe, if Villarreal continue their poor form! Malaga have won 11 games by 1 goal this season, and a win against Elche (who have nothing to play for) is essential for any hopes they may have.
A change of direction this week for our French betting advisor Andy Hooper (@EuroEliteFR) as he looks towards the over/under goals markets in search of the holy grail of football betting: profit.
SC Bastia v St. Etienne @ Stade Armand Cesari (7PM KO SAT):
Bastia have turned Stade Armand Cesari into something of a fortress this season,
Although the Ligue 1 weekend kicks off on Friday night with Metz v Marseille, the first match up that’s taken my fancy is the Saturday night showdown between Bastia and St Etienne.
These two teams possess some of the best defences in the division, and with the Corsicans playing at home, goals are likely to once again be a rarity.
Games involving Under 2.5 Goals this season
Bastia 22/34
St. Etienne 24/34
4 of Les Verts previous 5 Ligue 1 games have featured scorelines with 2 goals or under and with a travel to the island up next, I can’t see anything other than a low scoring affair.
AS Monaco v Toulouse @ Stade Louis III (4PM KO SUN):
Goals have been rare at the Stade Louis II this season
If there’s one place you can almost be assured of a low scoring game, then it’s in Monaco. Perhaps contributing to the low average attendances at the Stade Louis II this season, Les Monegasques have only been involved in games with 2 or more goals on 3 out of 17 occasions.
Just one of Monaco’s fixtures in their last 10 home outings has resulted in over 2.5 goals, which may have been something to do with Bastia having just 9 men on the pitch! Their opponents on Sunday, Toulouse, who after a run of 3 games unbeatenhave managed to haul themselves out of the relegation zone. During this run of 3 games only 4 goals have been scored and with a trip to Monaco on the horizon I would suggest not many more will be added to this total.
Toulouse manager Dominique Arribagé will be looking to continue his great record, but will know a draw would be a great result against a Monaco team that is bang in form. Putting men behind the ball is something that Monaco struggle against, and because of their impressively low scoring affairs this one should follow the trend.
After a lacklustre Man Utd display last Sunday, Premier League advisor David Huntingford (@EuroElitePL) was hunting a fifth successive week of profit, only to be denied by Man Utd’s inability to score a goal in a BTTS tip. This week he returns with a tasty double to whet the appetite, hoping to build on a very solid profit haul over the last month.
Aston Villa v Everton @ Goodison Park (3PM KO SAT):
This game constitutes a huge stepping stone in Aston Villa’s journey to avoiding relegation, a win would take them one step closer to retaining Premier League status. However, they face an Everton side in sparkling form who put 3 past a toothless Man Utd side last week. The scoring and conceding tendencies of these sides has pulled me in the direction of this bet,
Everton have now scored in 8 consecutive games, while Villa have conceded 10 in their last 5 games.
The ever passionate Tim Sherwood will be hoping for 3 points this Saturday, a 3 points which could be vital come the end of the season
Aston Villa are less defensive under Tim Sherwood and are therefore prone to conceding a goal or two. The Toffees, on the other hand, are full of confidence after a long overdue superb sequence of form and I therefore expect them to score this Saturday. Aston Villa have kept just 3 clean sheets at home all season (Premier League).
In the last 15 meetings between the two sides, Everton have only failed to score on one occasion.
Advised Bet: Aston Villa NO CLEAN SHEET @ 1/3
Spurs v Man City @ White Hart Lane (SkySports 16:00 SUN):
With Man City’s stuttering form of late, you wouldn’t be stupid for thinking they are a coupon buster. However, I’ve got a real inkling for City this weekend, while Spurs continue to pick up some decent results I believe their performance levels have definitely dropped over the last month. Danny Rose and Ben Davies are absent for Spurs, prompting the question of who will fill in at left-back? City will certainly be asking questions of their own, with a plethora of attacking options to capitalise on Spurs’ left-back troubles.
Spurs have really struggled against City in recent times, conceding 15 goals over their last 3 encounters!
Sergio Aguero is back in the goals and he’ll be sensing blood against a leaky defence. While Silva’s intricacy in and around the box will ask constant questions of Spurs ability to be compact and disciplined.
There is a risk that Spurs could put on a terrific display and blow City away (as they did to Chelsea at WHL), but City need the points this Sunday and Manuel Pellegrini will be expecting maximum returns. Man City have blown Spurs away in their last 3 meetings, prevailing 4-1, 5-1 and 6-0.
Another successful weekend on record by Spanish betting advisor Alex ‘El Consistento’ Luke (@EuroEliteESP) who hit up +1.2pts profit and looks to further bolster his winnings tonight.
The weekend went as many people expected, with all the favourites winning comfortably, whilst the relegation battle intensifies. Today I’ve picked out some value in the midweek offerings, here’s where to put your money:
Bet 1: Double at 2.13 (Winner Sports) – 2.5PT STAKE
Sevilla WIN vs Eibar (Wednesday, 7pm)
Atletico Madrid DOUBLE CHANCE vs Villarreal (Wednesday, 9pm, Sky Sports 5).
Sevilla are closing in on Champions League qualifications with 4th spot firmly in their sights. However, they are currently 2 points behind Valencia and so can’t afford to drop points in this game with time running out.
Eibar have lost 12 of their last 14 games, winning just once and so I think Sevilla (who have won 6 of their last 8) will brush them aside.
Eibar are certainly in danger of going down in their first season in the big time, however their form has shown no signs of improvement recently despite this threat and so I’m confident Sevilla can get the win and take a giant leap towards the Champions League.
In the second game of this double I’ve decided to look at Villarreal vs Atletico Madrid. Villarreal were a joy to watch earlier this season but have hit a terrible rut of form that they just cannot seem to recover from – winning just one of their last 9 games and failing to score in 6 of them. This bodes well for an Atletico clean sheet (available at 2.62) with the away side running a tight ship at the back – conceding only 26 goals all season. Additionally, the reigning champions are unbeaten in 10 and so I’m backing them to win or draw in this one which they should do with ease to hopefully land the double.
Football League betting advisor George Sandford (@EuroEliteFL) landed us +3.6pts profit in midweek and is confident of finishing off the end of the season in style with another astute tip for the weekend’s action.
Ipswich Town v Nottingham Forest @ Portman Road KO 3PM
A match that looks set to involve a plethora of goals this afternoon is this Championship match-up between two sides firing on all cylinders.
Ipswich boast an attacking line up containing provider of 24 goals Daryl Murphy alongside Freddie Sears, who has rattled home 4 goals in his last 5 appearances. These two should be chomping at the bit to get their mark on the scoresheet with Ipswich looking to take all three points here in order to fend off the chasing pack of Wolves and Brentford, who lurk 3 points behind and look to pounce on any mistake from the Tractor Boys.
Nottingham Forest are no mugs in front of goal themselves, and have found the back of the net on 10 occasions in their last 6 away fixtures. Boss Dougie Freedman is keen to continue to press on despite their mid table position, commenting pre match “there’s no way I’ll be going down there and taking it easy. For any travelling fans, I’m telling them to expect a tough game, but one which we’ll put everything we have into winning.“
Ipswich: 4 out of last 5 H games = BTTS
Nottm Forest: 4 out of last 5 A games = BTTS
Nottm Forest: Undefeated in 10 of their last 11 matches against Ipswich in all competitions.
Taking all considerations into account it would seem a favourable bet to be following the Both Teams To Score market, which is offered at 4/5 with Betfred and Ladbrokes.
Bundesliga specialist Tom Sandford (@EuroEliteGER) has called it how he sees it this week, as Stuttgart and Freiburg prepare to do battle in a crucial 6-pointer that will nudge either side towards knowing their fate.
Stuttgart vs Freiburg @ Mercedez-Benz Arena, KO 14:30
The basement battle in the Bundesliga is really beginning to intensify. The Bundesliga relegation system is a little different from what we know in England. In Germany the bottom two clubs are relegated as usual but the team in third bottom (or 16th in this case) plays the team who came in 3rd in the 2. Bundesliga.
The relegation battle this season appears to have ultimately come down to 5 teams: Freiburg, Hannover, Paderborn, Stuttgart and Hamburg. There are only 4 points between Hamburg in 18th and Freiburg in 14th.
The two teams meet today hoping to get some crucial points in their bid to stay in the top division of German football next season and neither are unfamiliar with what it takes to stay up; Stuttgart and Freiburg placed 15th and 14 respectively last season, both narrowly escaping potential relegation or a relegation playoff match.
Looking at both teams’ recent history isn’t a pretty sight but then again if it was neither team would have anything to worry about this season; both Stuttgart and Freiburg lost their last outings but still managed to find the scoresheet. On paper it would seem as though Stuttgart have been the brighter of the teams, having won their last 2 home games they will be extra confident of a win tomorrow.
Stuttgart should also hold the psychological edge over their opponents as they come into the game in the knowledge that they have beaten Freiburg in 5 of the last 6 meetings and more importantly in the reverse fixture this season 4-1.
Freiburg mustn’t be ruled out too much though- they are higher in the league than Stuttgart and have a superior goal difference which is a testament to their superior points haul for the season against the stiff German competition..
With that said though I am still going to tip Stuttgart to come out on top here however do not expect Freiburg to go down without a fight, they should find the scoresheet but are likely to lose the match overall.
VfB Stuttgart WIN & BTTS (v Freiburg) – 2.5 PT STAKE @ 4.00(Coral, William Hill, bet365)
@FitbaTips is the chief betting advisor forwww.scottishfootballtips.comand can easily lay claim to being the most comprehensive Scottish football tipster on the interweb. While he does not tip exclusively on Scottish football you won’t find a wider range of bets and analysis for Scottish ‘fitba’ anywhere.
As we approach the real business end of the season there is a bizarre lull around Scottish football at the moment. Pretty much all that is to be sorted has been sorted, with a few notable exceptions. Many teams are now fulfilling fixtures while they wait for the do or die playoffs to come about. For that reason I am loathe to touch any WDW bets this Saturday although I will revisit Stranraer v Morton later in the afternoon.
Instead I am looking at a team goals treble, all from The Premiership, that looks to have an excellent chance. As a consequence of games being hard to call there is a little extra value on certain teams prices just to score. Two home teams with excellent goalscoring records on their own patch are Ross County and Dundee and neither are of them are up against challengers who have proven adept on their travels. Kilmarnock are included, despite being away from home, because they face off against the down and out Saint Mirren and are as likely to score there as anyone elsewhere from Saturday’s fixtures.
Recommended Bets.
Kilmarnock, Dundee, Ross County – ALL +0.5 Team Goals @ 2.545 – 1 PT STAKE
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