Our French betting advisor Andy Hooper (@EuroEliteFR) casts his eye over the betting opportunities at the bottom end of the Ligue 1 table this weekend, where it’s all still to play for in the race to avoid relegation.
TFC top scorer Wisam Ben Yedder will be looking to continue his hot form this weekend.
The Stadium Municipal will see Toulouse and Nantes square up in what is to be a significant match in TFC’s hopes of pushing themselves away from the drop zone.
Since parting ways with manager Alain Casanova in March and replacing him with Dominique Arribage, Le Tefece have turned their previous form on its head, going from 18th and seemingly doomed, to a position that will surely see them remain in Ligue 1 for yet another season.
Arribage has overseen 3 victories out of 4 including 2 invaluable wins at home against teams much higher than them in the Ligue 1 standings.
In fact even before their recent turn in form it has been the home form of TFC that has seen them stay in contention this year. In 16 matches they’ve won 7 and lost just 4 times, and with the southwestern club coming up against a Nantes team on a dire run of recent away performances, they’ll surely fancy themselves to find a way to win.
As mentioned above, Nantes are sitting pretty in mid table without much to play for in the remainder of the season. However, their secure place in the league is by no means down to their performances away from Le Stade de la Beaujoire. On their travels this year ‘Les Canaris’ have managed to pick up 3 points on just 4 occasions, with their most recent success coming way back in December! Worse still, in their last 7 away from home only twice have they managed to draw. Ignoring such dreadful form would be criminal in my opinion and considering the majority of the bookmakers have placed a Toulouse win at well over evens, it’s just to good to refuse.
Toulouse WIN (v Nantes) – 3.5 PT Stake @ 2.15 (Coral, William Hill, Betfred, ToteSport)
As the Premier League season gradually dwindles into its concluding stages, the in form man of the moment David Huntingford (@EuroElitePL) provides his insight on where there’s value this weekend. He’s looking to build on a healthy profit haul of +19.375 pts. Following his tips over the last 30 days would have yielded you an ROI (return on investment) of 100.32%, that equates to doubling your money!
Remember at Europe’s Elite we provide a service that’s objective is long term profit, we don’t pose as a ‘get rich quick scheme’. If you’re looking for an investment betting opportunity, then follow our tips consistently for solid returns. Beating the bookies is extremely difficult at the best of times, but our tips provide a mathematical edge that the vast majority of online tipsters fail to find.
QPR v West Ham @ Loftus Road (3PM KO Saturday)
With the Under 3.5 goals market serving us well in recent times, I’ve decided to have another pop this weekend. The bookies seem to feel there are goals in this game, with all major bookmakers offering below evens on the Over 2.5 outcome. On initial glance of this game my gut instinct has been telling me it will be cagey, with pockets of space limited all around the pitch.
I’d usually expect this type of encounter to be priced at around 2/7 or 1/4 for under 3.5 goals, but it’s actually priced at 4/11.
Inevitably this price reflects goal patterns and scoring tendencies, however, my intuition is telling me that this will be a cagey affair with chances limited at both ends of the pitch. These two sides are physical units, possessing many individuals who can break up the play, there is certainly a lack of creativity and guile (especially QPR). Loftus Road has a very small pitch which will limit time and space on the ball, I expect large periods of the game to be played in the middle third. The previous meeting between the two sides finished in a 2-0 win for West Ham at the Boleyn Ground.
QPR Possible Line-up:
This is a huge game for QPR in the context of the relegation dogfight, I do think they can win this game. However, if Austin doesn’t turn up you have to question where the goals are coming from. This side lacks creativity and cleverness in the areas that count. On the other hand, they have many dogged performers ready for battle who can disrupt the play, I think West Ham will struggle to break them down tomorrow.
West Ham Possible Line-up:
The continued absence of Andy Carroll has posed a real problem for West Ham, goals have been difficult to come by. Carlton Cole will work hard and hold the ball up competently, but his goal scoring record has been poor over the last couple of years. Zamora and Austin are physically imposing, but Reid and Collins are very capable in the air and won’t give much away. From an attacking sense West Ham will look to utilise Cresswell and Jenkinson on the overlap, they both provide adequate ammunition into the box. Unfortunately I can’t see their service being complimented by the forward men.
Everton v Man Utd @ Goodison Park (SkySports 13:30 Sunday)
Most bookmakers are offering a price of just under EVENS for BTTS, considering recent form and the level of confidence both sides have accumulated in recent weeks I believe this price is rather kind. Everton have finally got themselves together and are finding consistency for the first time this season.
Everton have now scored in 7 consecutive games and I expect this trend to continue at the weekend.
For all Man Utd’s improvement in the last month, they still have a very shaky defence that needs strengthening in the summer. Long gone are the days of Neville, Ferdinand, Vidic and Evra.
Romelu Lukaku is back from injury, I expect his pace and power to cause a mistake prone United defence problems
On the other hand I don’t expect United’s confidence to be dented by the loss to Chelsea last week, it’s always very difficult to break down any Mourinho side, even more so when they park the bus. I think both sides will approach this encounter positively, looking to play a vibrant brand of attacking football, while pushing men forward and leaving each other exposed to the counter attack. United’s 4th spot is all but secured, while Everton have nothing to play for apart a top half finish. I’m expecting an entertaining game with both sides getting on the score sheet.
Bet 1: QPR v West Ham Under 3.5 Goals, Everton v Man Utd BTTS
Double @ 2.52 (BetVictor) 4 PT STAKE
Bet 2: Burnley v Leicester DRAW, Manchester City WIN and BTTS v Aston Villa
There have been a few pretenders to the crown but this is it. This is the real clash of the titans in the League Of Ireland tonight. It will be a clash of styles, a clash of footballing philosophies and a clash of the two most capable sides. These two are the elite teams in the Premier Division as it stands.
Cork are very physical and direct. What they lack in guile they make up in pace, power and height. Dundalk are an intricate passing side. Technically gifted what they lack in physicality they make up with inventiveness.
The meetings between these sides could go a long way to deciding the title this year and that’s where the key to this games is for me, the head to heads. Dundalk have won the last four meetings and five out of the last six. In those last six meetings Dundalk have scored at least two goals. These results aren’t far back in history either, they are all from the last two years. Dundalk have shown an ability to counter the physical nature of Cork City so I think they are capable of going down to Cork and giving them trouble.
If you’re thinking of backing a Dundalk win you might be better served backing +1.5 Dundalk team goals available at 2/1 with Coral. Thats a pretty good price considering they have scored at least two in every game against Cork under Stephen Kenny’s management.
But I am backing the match goals market where I think +2.5 goals has a great chance and is also nicely priced at 2.5(6/4) with Coral.
Nine of the last fifteen H2Hs have seen three or more. That’s 60% and the price dictates a 40% success rate is required to break even, so that’s value right there.
Even more interestingly the last six H2Hs at tonight’s venue, Turners Cross, have all seen more than two goals. The stats are very much in our favour for this one and the price is definitely right.
Recommended bets
Cork City v Dundalk +2.5 Match goals @ 2.5(6/4) – 1 pt.
Our man with a constant eye for value in Spain , Alex Luke (@EuroEliteESP), returns this weekend with a couple of meaty bets. At Europe’s Elite we adjust our stake sizes to confidence in the bet or the value to be had. So a 6.5pt outlay from Alex this week symbolises a lot of value to be had. As one of the most solid advisors in the team, we’d advise following him all the way to the bank this weekend.
Bet 1: Atletico Madrid vs Elche HT/FT Result ATL/ATL at 1.67 (Skybet, Betvictor, Paddypower) – 4 PT STAKE (Saturday, 5pm, Sky Sports 5)
The title may be effectively over but Atletico Madrid certainly have a lot to play for in their pursuit of a coveted spot in the Champions League. Their opponents on Saturday evening are a side with very little to play for – Elche are 15th, with a comfortable cushion of 6 points and 3 teams between them and the relegation zone. A fairly innocuous run of games to finish the season presents them with more than enough opportunities to end any doubts over their league status and so I doubt they’ll see this game as anything more than a shot to nothing against a much better side. This will mean that Elche will be far more reluctant to put all their efforts into this game, keen to avoid injuries or be fatigued for games in the future and thus better opportunities to pick up points.
Atletico’s form at home has been nothing short of what you’d expect from the reigning champions, with just one defeat in 16 matches alongside a mammoth tally of 13 wins. As you’d guess, the odds for a home win are rather short – however I believe I have found value in one particular market.
Atletico have been leading at half time in a staggering 94% of their home games – 15 out of the 16 they’ve played.
From this, they’ve taken maximum points in 13 games, a success rate of 87% when leading at half time. Elche have played away at everyone bar Atletico from the top 5, and in each and every one of those games they’ve been behind at half time. They’ve also been losing by two or more goals at half time in several games this season, especially against the top sides, so a small stake on Atletico -1 Half Time Handicap at 3.6 seems a favourable bet too.
Atletico’s attacking threat poised by the likes of Griezmann and Turan should have a field day against the away side, who have only managed 3 clean sheets on the road all season. I fully expect Atletico to start quickly as they have so often this season and the HT/FT result is decent value – with the price offered by the bookies (1.67) definitely worth taking.
Bet 2: Double at 3.08 (Skybet) – 2.5 PT STAKE
Antonio Barragan celebrates his goal against Real Madrid in Valencia’s 2-1 victory earlier in the season.
Sevilla WIN vs Rayo Vallecano (Sunday, 6pm, Sky Sports 5)
Valencia -1 HANDICAP vs Granada (Monday, 7:45pm)
Sevilla have maintained a simply superb unbeaten record at the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán Stadium all season with 11 wins and 5 draws. Next up to try and better them are the inconsistent Rayo Vallecano – a side who (quite literally) lost 6-1 to a team just above them one week before winning 2-0 the next!
Rayo have lost 5 of their last 6 away games in the league, whilst Sevilla have won 6 of their last 8 at home, drawing only to Barcelona and Atletico.
Sevilla’s miserly defence only concede just over a goal every 2 games at home, whilst Rayo are goal shy on their travels, scoring just 17 times. In all honesty I really don’t think Rayo stand much of a chance, especially as they have nothing to play for whilst Sevilla are fighting it out with Valencia for a sacred Champions League spot.
I’ve written so many words on Valencia this season, and for good reason – they’re an extremely consistent, well organised team who have maintained their performance levels and are professional at dealing with weaker sides. This is demonstrated no better than by the fact that they haven’t conceded a goal at home in over 500 minutes of football. Their home record is staggering, with just one defeat and two draws all season, whilst they’ve beaten every team at the Mestalla placed 9th and below that they have faced. They welcome Granada on Monday night, who suffer from a wretched away record that has caused them to slip to second bottom. One away win all season is simply not good enough and it’s no surprise that they look likely to go down after some of their terrible performances; a 9-1 thrashing at the hands of Real Madrid, a crushing 6-0 defeat to Barcelona and a 5-1 thumping from Sevilla are the three most notable. They have lost every away game against the top 6 by two goals or more and Valencia shouldn’t have an issue maintaining that record; the home side have won 10 games at home by 2 goals or more. Valencia will be desperate to hang onto 4th spot and so I think they’ll show no mercy and run riot against weak opponents.
Things are hotting up across the Football League with most sides having just 3 or 4 games to make or break their season. The action returns tonight and once again Football League betting advisor George Sandford (@EuroEliteFL) is on hand to point us in the direction of where the profitable long term decision lies.
MK Dons v Doncaster Rovers @ Stadium:mk, KO 19:45
What a season it’s been for Karl Robinson’s free-scoring MK Dons. A 4-0 roasting of Manchester United in the Capital One Cup back in August paved way for a similar domination of their League One counterparts, notching up a mammoth tally of 90 goals from their 43 outings to date.
MK Dons have averaged 2.48 goals/game at home
Tonight the Dons match up in front of a home crowd against a Doncaster Rovers side with nothing but pride to play for, having suffered a recent slump of form at the most crucial point of the season. Doncaster have lost 4 of their last 8 and, since their fighting chance of a play-off place has ebbed away, have mustered up just 4 goals from their last 5 games.
(Above): Highlight video of Delle Alli’s season, from the official MK Dons YouTube channel.
MK Dons certainly don’t take any prisoners and I’d expect them to come out firing again tonight. Tottenham loanee Delle Alli, scorer of 16 goals this season, should have an extra bit of pep in his step after being awarded the ‘Football League’s Best Young Player’ accolade this week as well as the opportunity to impress his new employers at White Hart Lane. Alli isn’t the only one likely to be firing on all cylinders as 19-goal man Will Grigg has found the back of the net 8 times in his last 6. Grigg will be doing everything he can to get on the scoresheet in order to make up ground on current League One top scorer Joe Garner, who boasts 21 goals.
MK Dons have won 6 out of their last 7 games by a margin of at least two, conceding just 3 goals.
Taking all of this into account I really feel as though the MK Dons will push on to record another solid victory tonight. Their domination at home, with 14 wins out of 21, should continue and SkyBet offer a juicy 6/5 for them to win by two or more goals, a feat they have achieve in 10 of those aforementioned 14 home wins.
This looks like a game that the bookies have priced up on reputation rather than reality. Shamrock Rovers at 1/3 for a game away from home against any team in this division is ridiculously short and not worthy of consideration. Anyone thinking of backing them on the handicaps should think twice because they have won only twice this season by more than the odd goal.
The home side are on a bit of a run at the moment too with two wins and a draw since they parted company with the management team that started the season. In the five games previous they hadn’t managed a single goal but then banged in seven in the first two games under new management with the next result a very creditable 0-0 draw away to Derry City. That, incidentally, was the same result Shamrock Rovers managed away to Derry just the week before.
At home Bray haven’t been beaten by more than one goal in four matches and it looks, to me at least, unlikely that they will suffer a greater defeat here tonight. You can back Bray +1 Asian handicap at 2.25(5/4) with bet365 and that has stake back insurance should the home team lose by one goal. Any better result is a win and it looks to have a great chance.
Elsewhere I wouldn’t put anyone off a treble of Dundalk, Cork and Saint Patricks Athletic that pays out at 2.23 with Ladbrokes.
Recommended bets.
Bray Wanderers +1AH @ 2.25(5/4) with bet365 (1pt).
French betting advisor Andy Hooper (@EuroEliteFR) consistently searches for value by opposing the big sides, and this week’s instalment is no different.
The first game of this Saturday’s Ligue 1 action sees reigning French champions, and newly crowned Coupe de la Ligue winners, Paris Saint Germain travel to the South of France to take on OGC Nice. As is so often the case when teams like PSG play, the bookmakers make the team at the top of the table and who appear to be in pretty good form as odds on favorites. Although they are right to do this on most occasions, I believe this weekend is different.
Barcelona’s demolition of PSG on Wednesday highlighted everything that’s wrong with the parisien’s right now. Oh and close those legs David…
Wednesday night saw an already weary PSG side get taught a lesson by Spanish powerhouses Barcelona and not only did they come out of the game with their pride damaged, but it also saw even more players added to their already long list of injured/suspended players. Arguably the parisien’s two best central defenders will be sidelined through recent injuries (David Luiz along with captain Thiago Silva) and with Zlatan Ibrahimovic starting the first of his four game suspension, the core of the capital side has disappeared.
The hosts this Saturday are Nice, and after an indifferent start to their Ligue 1 campaign they currently sit mid table and on a run of three games unbeaten. The first of this 3 game streak was a stunning 2-1 victory (with just 10 men!) away at high flying Olympique Lyonnais, and the most recent was a strong 1-0 win against Reims. Nice’s midfield maestro on loan from Porto, Carlos Eduardo (see video below), has been in mesmerizing form of late, and with the thought facing a make shift PSG back four the goal scoring Brazilian midfielder will be licking his lips!
PSG have found grinding out results away from home tricky this year, and with just 1 win on their last 3 games on the road (including a 3-2 loss at Bordeaux) this weekend is unlikely to be any different. Without top goalscorer Ibrahimovic and as a result of losing talismanic defender Thiago Silva to injury, I foresee the parisien’s really struggling this weekend against a Nice outfit that will certainly be looking to put one over on the French champions.
Nice or Draw (v PSG) – 3.5 PT STAKE @ 2.4 (Unibet, Coral)
@FitbaTips is the chief betting advisor for www.scottishfootballtips.comand can easily lay claim to being the most comprehensive Scottish football tipster on the interweb. While he does not tip exclusively on Scottish football you won’t find a wider range of bets and analysis for Scottish ‘fitba’ anywhere.
Aberdeen v Dundee United
There is only one Scottish Premiership match on Saturday but shouldn’t necessarily mean the betting options are limited. Aberdeen host Dundee United in a game I can see going one way. Last season Aberdeen were the best of the rest when you eliminate the elite Celtic from the picture. But they threw away second place allowing Motherwell to steal it on the last day of the season. That won’t happen this year, it can’t.
Dundee United have won one game from their last eleven matchesand they were, lets say, fortunate to do even that. It also happened to come against the only team in the league performing worse than them at the moment, St. Mirren excepted.
There is nothing in this game that tells me Aberdeen will get anything other than three points. An out of form (perhaps ‘in turmoil’ would be a better description) Dundee United, a determined Aberdeen, home advantage for The Dons where they have lost just to Celtic in fifteen matches and Adam Rooney bang in form? Aberdeen win all the way.
Aberdeen are short but not unduly so for me at 1.62(8/13) but you can back them -1 Asian Handicap at 2.06(53/50) with Betvictor with stake back insurance if they only win by the one goal.
Recommended bets.
Aberdeen -1 Asian Handicap @ 2.06(53/50) with Betvictor. 1pt.
Spanish betting advisor Alex ‘Mr Reliable’ Luke (@EuroEliteESP) has had to dig deep to find value this week but rest assured; here’s 3 of the best bets going in La Liga this weekend.
It was a struggle to find some bets I felt were worth backing this weekend, with heavily backed favourites often offering little value. However after sifting through stats, performances and form in great detail, I’ve managed to find 3 selections I’m happy to back. As always with the structure of our bets, should one land we’ll be in the money.
Bet 1: Barcelona vs Valencia @ Nou Camp, 18/04 KO: 3PM
I’m saying goals are on the menu on Saturday, and who would back against this man being in the thick of the action
As things stand the Catalan giants sit at the top of the La Liga standings, with Real Madrid hot on their heels. The home side dropped a two goal lead away to Sevilla last weekend and know they need a win here to ensure they stay at the top.
Opponents Valencia are one of the form sides in the division, on a run of 10 games without defeat.
As usual every man and his dog has stuck Barcelona in their accumulator this weekend, so no value backing Luis Enrique’s men. Instead I’m looking towards the ‘Both Teams To Score’market instead. Looking back at Barcelona’s other home games against other top sides in the league its clear to see that goals are a key recurring theme.
All of Barcelona’s home games against sides in the top 6 have resulted in both teams scoring, and this is a trend I certainly expect to continue on the weekend.
Additionally a massive 67% of Valencia’s away games have seen both teams score, with notable score draws away at Sevilla and Athletico Madrid. Valencia have scored in 87% of their away matches this season whilst Barcelona have scored in 87% of their home games. All of the statistics indicate that both sides will score in this game and frankly I could talk all day about the volume of information that points to this outcome – but I don’t want to bore you, so I’ll leave it at that! In truth I’m amazed the odds are not a lot lower and 1.91 is a price I’m ecstatic about getting my money behind.
BTTS – 4 PT STAKE @ 1.91 (Coral)
Bet 2: Villarreal vs Cordoba @ El Madrigal 19/04 KO: 6PM
Cordoba come into this game 9 points adrift of safety and rock bottom of La Liga. Their hopes of survival are almost non existent but with 7 games remaining they’ll still be desperate to pick up any point they can to try and pull off the impossible. This weekend they travel to Villarreal who have been in wretched form recently and have dropped out of the top 5, with their Champions League ambitions in tatters. However, their home form on the whole this season has been excellent, winning every game against teams 9th placed and below.
Despite this worrying statistic, I’ve delved a little deeper into the statistics and produced a bet which I think is real value. Firstly, Villarreal have only been leading at half time in 2 of their last 15 games. The vast majority have been draws, with the opposition leading on several occasions too. Cordoba meanwhile have only been losing at half time in 2 of their last 7 away games – despite their poor form. This is encouraging as the odds on Cordoba to be drawing or winning at half time are evens, whilst these stats indicate a likelihood of around 79%, and so the expected odds should be around the 1/4 mark.
Assuming the teams are level at half time, the chances of a Villarreal win are high. The Yellow Submarine have scored 65% of their home goals in the second half, and with their record against the bottom half sides they should still comfortably secure the three points.
After a small profitable return last week on a 1-1 Correct Score shout (here), David Huntingford (@EuroElitePL) was denied a whopping level of profit after Leicester produced a thrilling fightback in the last 10 minutes of their fixture against West Brom, leaving our Premier League advisor absolutely speechless. This weekend he strives for a fourth successive week of profit, in addition to previewing the crunch game between Chelsea and Manchester United at Stamford Bridge.
Bet 1: Chelsea v Man Utd @ Stamford Bridge (KO: 17.30, SkySports)
At 15/4 this price is an absolute steal, bookies seem to feel that goals will be few and far between. In classical circumstances, bookies usually offer prices of 2/1 for this outcome. 15/4 is buying value even if the bet doesn’t come through. I’m going Chelsea to win and BTTS.
For the majority of this week I’ve had this down as a game I think Man Utd can realistically get something from. However, the recent news regarding injuries makes for unpleasant reading from a United stance. Absentee’s of Carrick, Rojo, Jones and Blind leave the defence looking very vulnerable.
This United outfit are full of confidence, but a probable back four of Valencia, McNair, Smalling and Shaw are in for a very tough time tomorrow. While Chelsea continue to offer some sub-standard displays of late, they still exhibit the weaponry of Hazard, Oscar and Willian, all equally capable of unlocking a defence in an instant.
A key battle will be between Mata and Hazard, pictured above.
I want to focus on the absence of Michael Carrick. Carrick has been a pivotal part of United’s revival, and serves as a key unit of efficiency within LVG’s possession based game.
Michael Carrick has started 16 games for Manchester United this season, with United winning 12 of them.
As the old adage goes, ‘if you have the ball the opposition can’t score’, Carrick’s ball playing qualities enable United to sustain lengthy spells of possession. This is exemplified by possession stats in recent games:
59% v Man City, 77% v Aston Villa, 58% v Liverpool
58% against Liverpool is a particularly impressive stat, Liverpool are infamous for dictating the tempo of games at Anfield, pressing high and winning the ball back quickly. Defensively I think United still struggle off the ball, and the creative movement Chelsea possess could cause mayhem, especially with the range of vision Fabregas has at his disposal.
Carrick has the positional sense to pounce on countless loose balls, then play the simple square pass to his midfield counterparts or full backs. It’s efficient and simple, and most importantly effective.
Carrick is graceful and manoeuvre’s the ball at ease, Carrick always looks unruffled no matter the game and situation. Further to this, we can see a very similar theme occurring in the game against Man City:
Carrick’s enforcer type role enables the likes of Herrera and Mata to get forward and expressively use the ball in more attacking areas. Carrick just sits and keeps things ticking over.
The question mark for Saturday is who will be deployed in the CDM role?
Blind is missing
Fellaini can play there but his defensive attributes are questionable.
There is perhaps the possibility Rooney will fill that void.
As the bet mentioned, I’ve backed BTTS and believe that United’s flourishing attacking confidence and ingenuity will be enough to break through Chelsea’s sturdy defence. I’m going for an entertaining 2-1 win for Chelsea.
Chelsea WIN and BTTS – 2 PT STAKE @ 4.75 (Bwin)
Bet 2: Everton v Burnley @ Goodison Park (KO 15:00)
For Burnley this is a game they can’t really afford to lose, and with the stakes so high it is possible they may get a result.However, my job at Europe’s Elite is to advise value and seek out profitable opportunities where we can gain an edge over the bookies.
7/5 is an appealing price that can’t be sniffed at taking into account Everton’s outright price of 8/11. Everton are in a terrific vein of form, it’s been a long time coming when you consider the overall disappointment of their season.
Tomorrow Everton will play the ball about with a confidence and fearlessness, the kind of fearlessness that’s moulded through good form. I don’t expect Everton to be lacking in fluency or rhythm. Burnley will retain a solid combative shape, but ultimately I think Everton’s patient passing style will eventually break through. 5 out of Burnley’s last 6 losses have yielded under 3.5 goals, similarly Everton’s last 3 wins have yielded under 3.5 goals. 7/5 is a price which can’t be turned down given the circumstances and recent statistics.
Everton WIN & UNDER 3.5 G – 4 PT STAKE @ 2.4 (BoyleSports)
Baines and Coleman are key attacking components within Everton’s set-up, they often go on marauding runs to provide their forward men ammunition
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